The rupiah exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar fell towards the weekend amid the market projecting that the United States (US) Central Bank or The Fed would still maintain its benchmark interest rate or Fed Funds Rate (FFR).

Pada akhir perdagangan Jumat, kurs rupiah melemah 19 poin atau 0,12 persen menjadi Rp15.599 per dolar AS dari sebelumnya sebesar Rp15.580 per dolar AS.

"The movement of the rupiah is influenced by the prospect of the Fed Funds Rate which will remain high in the future in line with US inflation which is still difficult to reduce," said Bank Mandiri money market analyst Reny Eka Putri, in Jakarta, Friday.

Reny said that US labor sector data released last week showed the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent in February 2024, higher than market estimates and January 2024 which was 3.7 percent.

Meanwhile, there was a slight increase in US non-farm payrolls (NFP) with an addition of 275 thousand on February 24 in line with increasing employment in the health sector.

Lebih lanjut, inflasi AS terbaru dirilis meningkat menjadi 3,2 persen (yoy) pada Februari 2024, lebih tinggi dibandingkan perkiraan pasar sebesar 3,1 persen (yoy) karena adanya kenaikan harga pangan dan energi.

Begitu pula untuk inflasi inti meningkat sebesar 3,8 persen (yoy) pada Februari 2024, di atas konsensus sebesar 3,7 persen (yoy). The Fed memperkirakan ekonomi AS tumbuh lebih rendah sebesar 1,4 persen pada 2024 dibandingkan capaian pertumbuhan sebesar 2,5 persen pada 2023.

The development of US economic data has made the US cautious before adjusting the direction of its interest rates, so it is almost certain that at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March 2024, the Fed will still maintain its benchmark interest rate at the level of 5.5 percent.

According to market expectations, the closest possibility for the Fed to reduce its benchmark interest rate will be in June 2024. Developments in this data are also still influencing the global forex market, including the rupiah.

Throughout last week the movement of the rupiah fluctuated between IDR 15,639 per US dollar to IDR 15,778 per US dollar.

On the other hand, market players are waiting for the release of domestic trade balance data which is predicted to still experience a surplus of around 2 billion US dollars.

Source: antaranews.com.

Mar 16, 2024