The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar in todays trading, Friday (21/2/2025) is predicted to fluctuate but will close lower in the range of Rp16,290-Rp16,340, amid sentiment of Donald Trumps tariff policy. At the close of trading on Thursday (20/2), the rupiah was recorded to have weakened by 0.08% to Rp16,337.5 per US dollar. At the same time, the US dollar index also corrected by 0.24% to 106.91. Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi revealed that US President Donald Trump has announced a planned 25% tariff on cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors to be implemented in the coming months. Trump also hinted at the possibility of a 25% tariff on all wood imports to the US. This statement raises concerns that the US tariff hike could disrupt global trade and trigger a new trade war between the worlds two largest economies, he said in a written statement, Thursday (20/2/2025)

Meanwhile, the Fed released the minutes of its meeting on January 28-29, which showed a cautious stance among officials due to potential inflationary pressures from US trade and immigration policies. The discussion, Ibrahim said, highlighted concerns that Trumps proposed tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, increase production costs and drive inflation. Uncertainty about Trumps plans also made the Fed hesitant to implement interest rate cuts in 2025.

Domestically, Indonesias Balance of Payments (BOP) performance in Q4/2024 improved from the previous quarter. Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded a BOP surplus of US$7.9 billion in, up from US$5.9 billion in Q3 2024. Ibrahim said that overall, the BOP in 2024 recorded a surplus of US$7.2 billion, higher than US$6.3 billion in 2023. This increase was driven by better capital and financial transactions. Throughout 2024, the resilience of the external sector also remained strong amidst global financial market uncertainty. Capital and financial transactions recorded a surplus of US$16.4 billion, up from US$9.9 billion in 2023, supported by foreign capital inflows in direct investment and portfolio investment. On the other hand, the 2024 current account recorded a deficit of US$8.9 billion or 0.6% of GDP, higher than the deficit of US$2.0 billion or 0.1% of GDP in 2023. This was caused by a decrease in the surplus of the goods trade balance due to weakening demand from major trading partners, although domestic demand remains strong, Ibrahim concluded. In line with these sentiments, Ibrahim projected that the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar for todays weekend trading, Friday (21/2/2025), would fluctuate but close stronger in the range of Rp16,290-Rp16,340 per US dollar.

Source : market.bisnis.com

Feb 22, 2025