Latest Rupiah Forecast from 6 Experts, Dont Be Surprised if It Reaches IDR 15,000/US$
The rupiah exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar has been quite impressive in the last few days. This rupiah appreciation does not rule out the possibility of continuing to a stronger level.

Reported from Refinitiv, at the start of trading on March 6, 2025, the rupiah was at Rp16,250/US$, which was the strongest position since February 17, 2025 or around the last two weeks.

The rupiah exchange rate quickly strengthened to Rp325/US$ in the last four days.

Another interesting thing is that the rupiah performed amazingly because in just four days, the rupiah was able to strengthen by more than 300 points, namely from IDR 16,575/US$ on February 28, 2025 to IDR 16,250/US$ at the start of trading on March 6, 2025.

The appreciation that occurred in the rupiah cannot be separated from the US dollar index (DXY) which has weakened since March 3, 2025. As of March 5, 2025, the DXY was observed to be at 104.3 or the lowest since November 5, 2024 (the last four months).

Bad Signs of Trumps Policy for the US Are Starting to Appear

Signs of a weakening US economy are starting to be loud and can be detected from several indicators that are starting to decline month after month. Here are three signals that show that the US economy is in danger.

1. Gloomy US GDP Projection for Q1-2025

The Atlanta Federal Reserves GDPNow model now projects a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter. While it is still too early to say for sure whether GDP will actually be negative, this is a sharp decline from the previous growth projection of 2.3%.

The projection first changed to -1.5% on Friday, after taking into account the decline in consumer spending reported in Januarys Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Given that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the US economy, a decline in this category could have a major impact on GDP.

2. Inverted Yield Curve

The emergence of recession signals in the US occurred after the yield of the bond market between the long tenor of 10 years was below that of the short tenor of 3 months.

On Wednesdays trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below the 3-month bond, creating what is known as an inverted yield curve. This phenomenon has an accurate track record in predicting recessions in the 12 to 18 month time frame over the past few decades.

In fact, the New York Federal Reserve considers it a very reliable indicator, so they routinely update this relationship every month and provide an estimate of the chance of a recession in the next 12 months. TV

3. US Inflation Rises

The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 3% in January 2025, compared with 2.9% in December 2024, and higher than the market forecast of 2.9%, indicating a stall in efforts to curb inflation.

On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.5%, higher than 0.4% in the previous month, and exceeded market expectations for a slowdown to 0.3%. The housing index rose 0.4%, accounting for about 30% of the total increase.

Meanwhile, annual core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3%, compared with market expectations for a decline to 3.1%. Monthly core inflation also rose more than expected to 0.4%.

With this high US inflation, the US central bank (The Fed) will have difficulty cutting its interest rates or in other words, the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) has the potential to be at a fairly high level at least in the near future.

If this continues to happen, the US economy will have difficulty growing.

DXY Drops, Rupiah Improves

Negative signals seen in the US lately have put even more pressure on the DXY and the rupiah appears to be improving.

Bank Danamon economist Hosianna Situmorang said that the weakening of the US dollar to 104, the lowest in four months, occurred amid uncertainty due to US President Donald Trumps tariff policies against China, Canada, and Mexico.

Trump did grant a one-month exemption for the US automotive industry from the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and opened up the opportunity for further negotiations. However, the new tariff policy against the three countries has triggered retaliation, increasing the risk of a prolonged trade war and potentially hampering US economic growth, thus depressing the dollar exchange rate.

In addition, weak US labor data is further weighing on the dollar. The ADP report showed only 77 thousand jobs added in February, the lowest in seven months.

If the official employment data released on Friday is also disappointing, the market could be increasingly convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates faster to support the economy. Expectations of looser monetary policy are accelerating the weakening of the US dollar against other currencies, including the rupiah, Hosianna told CNBC Indonesia.

Meanwhile, Head of Macroeconomic Research BCA, Barra Kukuh Mamia said that concerns about the US recession followed by tariff policies that have the potential to slow the economy have caused the US dollar to correct.

In addition, Chief FX Strategist Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., Hirofumi Suzuki, told CNBC Indonesia that with the news of increased German defense spending, there has been a short-term easing of the euro short, which has caused the US dollar to weaken. The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is stable supported by the US dollar sell-off.

There is a possibility that the dollars weakening trend will continue for a while. Given the current situation, the dollar may weaken by around 5%, bringing the IDR exchange rate below 16,000, Hirofumi said.

Source : CNBC Indonesia

Mar 8, 2025
 
Bank note current rate:
  currency buy sell
USD 16,150 0
AUD 10,325 0
HKD 1,975 0
SGD 12,375 0
MYR 3,400 0
CAD 11,350 0
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EURO 18,900 0
SFR 20,375 0
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NT 350 0
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TRY 265 0
   Last Updated :16 Oct 2025 - 03:28 PM
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